Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Predictions Jack Germond

Numerous people have emailed and asked me for my predictions. I'll just say that Bob Novak and Timothy Carney probably has it pegged somewhat correctly.
Republicans:
1st Place: Mitt Romney
2nd Place: Mike Huckabee
3rd Place: Fred Thompson
4th Place: John McCain

Democrats:
1st Place: Barack Obama
2nd Place: John Edwards
3rd Place: Hillary Clinton
4th Place: Bill Richardson

Romney is going to do well, primarily because of his stance on immigration. Thompson, too. If it was a Romney/Thompson ticket I think the GOP would be unstoppable. Huckabee has blown it, and McCain will probably lose to Ron Paul.

I think Obama is going to do really well, but I think Edwards will surprise people. Many Democrats I've heard from are choosing Edwards as the pragmatic candidate for a variety of reasons: he's not a female former co-president with huge negatives, not black, and in retrospect everybody supporting Edwards in '08 thinks he could have beaten Bush in '04 rather than John Kerry. Remember this about Democrats: winning isn't everything, it's the only thing.

2 comments:

Independent said...

"Democrats I've heard from are choosing Edwards as the pragmatic candidate for a variety of reasons: he's...not black"

Did I really read that right? You've talked to Democrats who aren't voting for Obama because he's black?

Either that needs to be rephrased, or you need to pick some new friends.

jeremy cobert said...

i am going with this.
Republicans:
1st Place: Mike Huckabee
2nd Place: Mitt Romney
3rd Place: Ron Paul
4th Place: Fred Thompson

Democrats:
1st Place: Barack Obama
2nd Place: Hillary Clinton
3rd Place: John Edwards
and Bill Richardson wins the VP.