Hogberg On Vilsack and McCain In Iowa

David Hogberg (left), standing next to a 7 foot tall woman.

David Hogberg, writing in the American Spectator, seems to think that Tom Vilsack running for President hurts John McVain in Iowa:

Vilsack's entry hurts McCain because, as in 1992, an uncompetitive race in Iowa will make New Hampshire the first real contest for the Democrats. A host of Democratic candidates will be running in New Hampshire, making the Democratic ballot much more appealing to the independents who can participate in the Granite State's open primary. Thus, many of the independents who contributed to McCain's stunning 2000 victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary will instead be voting in the Democratic one.

Adding to McCain's likely woes in New Hampshire is the Republican contest in the Iowa Caucuses will be competitive. The Iowa Caucus will winnow out some of the less competitive GOP candidates, making the Republican primary in New Hampshire less interesting than the Democratic one. This will give independents even more incentive to participate in the Democratic Primary, further reducing the number of McCain's supporters.

Hogberg cites a lot of other reasons why Iowa conservatives and Bible thumpers might hate McPain.

Honestly, I doubt Vilsack will do that well in Iowa. He was polling fourth in a crowded field this past summer. And a lot of Iowa Democrats remember the mistake of getting behind Tom Harkin in 1992, who got 76.4% of the Iowa Caucus vote then. Bill Clinton finished third with 2.8%. After Iowa, it was all over for Harkin very quickly. Still, you don't want to misunderestimate Tom Vilsack, who has faced uphill battles throughout his political life.

McVain's biggest problem, besides being crooked, old, and having a cancer that's been eating away his brain cells for years, is his ability to offend evangelical Christians. They make up a good 25% to 30% of the Republican Party in Iowa.